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SKECHERS USA INC (SKX)·Q1 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Skechers delivered record Q1 2024 sales of $2.25B (+12.5% YoY) and diluted EPS of $1.33 (+30% YoY), with gross margin at 52.5% (+360 bps) and operating margin at 13.3% (+210 bps), driven by strength in both Wholesale (+9.8%) and Direct‑to‑Consumer (+17.3%) and broad-based regional growth (EMEA +17%, APAC +16%, Americas +8%) .
  • Management raised full‑year 2024 guidance: sales to $8.725–$8.875B (from $8.60–$8.80B) and EPS to $3.95–$4.10 (from $3.65–$3.85), citing stronger-than-expected demand and wholesale recovery; Q2 sales guided to $2.175–$2.225B and EPS to $0.85–$0.90 given heavier demand-creation spending in Q2 .
  • Domestic wholesale returned to growth (+7.7%); international wholesale grew 10.9%; DTC rose 24.1% internationally and 8.0% domestically, underscoring category leadership in comfort technologies (notably Hands‑Free Slip‑ins) and robust omni-channel execution .
  • Mix and lower freight drove margin gains; management expects freight tailwinds to fade post-Q1, with future gross margin support from product/channel mix and DTC growth; elevated marketing in Q2 aims to cement Skechers’ ownership of Slip‑ins technology, impacting quarterly EPS phasing but supporting full‑year performance .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Broad-based growth with record quarterly sales and strong profitability: “Record sales of $2.25 billion, EPS of $1.33, gross margins of 52.5% and an operating margin of 13.3%” (COO) . Wholesale rebounded (+9.8%) with domestic wholesale +7.7%, and DTC grew +17.3% .
    • International strength with EMEA +17.4%, APAC +15.9%, China +13.3%; international represented ~65% of total sales (CFO/COO remarks) .
    • Guidance raised for FY24 (sales and EPS), reflecting stronger order books and robust sell-through; management reiterates confidence in $10B 2026 sales goal .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Operating expenses deleveraged 150 bps YoY to 39.2% on higher marketing, labor, and facility costs (selling +50 bps; G&A +100 bps), partially offsetting gross margin gains .
    • Q2 EPS guided below Q1 due to heavier demand creation spending timing (seasonal advertising cadence; intention to “own” Slip‑ins technology in consumers’ minds) .
    • India remains a watch item: near-term regulatory uncertainty around import restrictions and local manufacturing capacity constraints; management remains long‑term optimistic .

Financial Results

Overall performance (sequential comparison)

MetricQ3 2023Q4 2023Q1 2024
Revenues ($USD Millions)$2,025.0 $1,960.9 $2,251.6
Gross Margin %52.9% 53.1% 52.5%
Operating Margin %10.5% 6.6% 13.3%
Diluted EPS ($)$0.93 $0.56 $1.33

Q1 YoY comparison

MetricQ1 2023Q1 2024
Sales ($USD Millions)$2,001.9 $2,251.6
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$978.6 $1,181.6
Gross Margin %48.9% 52.5%
Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$755.0 $882.8
Operating Margin %11.2% 13.3%
Net Earnings Attributable to SKX ($USD Millions)$160.4 $206.6
Diluted EPS ($)$1.02 $1.33

Non-GAAP constant currency (Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023)

  • Constant currency Q1 2024: Sales $2,269.8M; EPS $1.37 vs reported $1.33; illustrates FX headwind in the quarter .

Segment breakdown (Q1 YoY)

SegmentQ1 2023 Sales ($M)Q1 2024 Sales ($M)YoY %Gross Margin Q1 2023Gross Margin Q1 2024
Wholesale$1,294.6 $1,421.7 9.8% 39.6% 44.7%
Direct-to-Consumer$707.3 $829.9 17.3% 66.0% 65.7%
Total$2,001.9 $2,251.6 12.5% 48.9% 52.5%

Geography/channel (Q1 YoY)

Geography/ChannelQ1 2023 ($M)Q1 2024 ($M)YoY %
Domestic Wholesale$441.9 $476.0 7.7%
Domestic Direct-to-Consumer$299.0 $322.8 8.0%
Total Domestic$740.9 $798.8 7.8%
International Wholesale$852.6 $945.7 10.9%
International Direct-to-Consumer$408.4 $507.1 24.1%
Total International$1,261.0 $1,452.8 15.2%
EMEA$534.5 $627.6 17.4%
APAC$521.5 $604.5 15.9%
Americas$945.9 $1,019.5 7.8%
China Sales$282.0 $319.5 13.3%
Distributor Sales$103.9 $125.9 21.2%

KPIs and balance sheet

KPIQ4 2023Q1 2024
Total Stores (Company + 3rd party)5,168 5,203
Company‑Owned Domestic Stores563 565
Company‑Owned International Stores1,085 1,106
Distributor/Licensee/Franchise Stores3,520 3,532
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Investments$1.39B (at 12/31/23) $1.25B (at 3/31/24)
Inventory$1.53B (12/31/23) $1.36B (3/31/24)
Share Repurchases$60M in Q4 $60M in Q1

Drivers and context

  • Margin expansion was primarily due to lower unit costs (freight normalization) and higher ASPs/product mix; opex rose with brand demand creation and higher labor/facility costs .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
SalesFY 2024$8.60–$8.80B $8.725–$8.875B Raised
Diluted EPSFY 2024$3.65–$3.85 $3.95–$4.10 Raised
SalesQ2 2024$2.175–$2.225B New
Diluted EPSQ2 2024$0.85–$0.90 New
Effective Tax RateFY 202420%–21% 19%–20% Lowered
Capital ExpendituresFY 2024$350–$400M $325–$375M Lowered
Long‑term Target2026$10B sales goal $10B sales goal reaffirmed Maintained

Management also noted Q2 EPS will be lower sequentially due to timing of demand creation spend focused on brand building and Slip‑ins technology; spend benefits the full‑year trajectory .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2023 (Q‑2)Q4 2023 (Q‑1)Q1 2024 (Current)Trend
Wholesale recovery/order bookWholesale −1.4% YoY; EMEA congestion at some retailers .Wholesale −8.3%; mgmt optimistic on H1’24 bookings; domestic restock expected .Wholesale +9.8%; domestic +7.7%; strong order flow and earlier deliveries; mid‑to‑high single‑digit wholesale growth for year .Improving momentum
DTC momentumDTC +23.8% .DTC +20.3%; >50% of sales for first time .DTC +17.3%; intl +24.1%, US +8% .Strong, moderating growth
Gross margin drivers52.9% on mix and lower freight .53.1% on mix and lower freight .52.5% on lower freight and tech‑heavy mix; freight tailwinds fade post‑Q1 .Sustained high GM; freight normalization
China+18% to $267.6M .+22% in Q4; full‑year +15% .$319.5M (+13.3%); cautious optimism on runway .Recovery continues
Supply chain/logisticsNew DCs (India, Canada, Panama) to cut time/cost .Panama DC to be online Q2; company‑operated DC in Colombia; second China DC capex ; Red Sea impact limited .Capacity build; minor disruptions
Marketing/demand creationHigher demand creation spend y/y .Elevated selling expense; over‑investing to build tech brands .Heaviest spend in Q2 to own Slip‑ins technology narrative .Proactive brand investment
India/regulatoryNew Mumbai DC; shipment delays in 2023 .Regulatory uncertainty on imports; building local mfg capacity; long‑term positive .Watch item; long‑term upside
Product/technologyConsumers trading up to comfort tech; mix aiding margins .Slip‑ins, Arch Fit, Max Cushioning; tech increasingly pervasive; wholesale catching up .Deepening tech adoption

Management Commentary

  • “We saw growth of 17% in our Direct‑to‑Consumer segment and 10% in Wholesale… domestic wholesale business returned to growth, increasing 8% over last year.” – David Weinberg, COO .
  • “Wholesale sales increased 9.8%… seeing a recovery in domestic wholesale… International wholesale sales also returned to growth… inventory congestion… abated.” – John Vandemore, CFO .
  • “Gross margin was 52.5%, up 360 bps… driven by lower freight costs and a favorable product mix as consumers sought out our higher‑margin technology‑infused products.” – CFO .
  • “For the second quarter, we expect… EPS $0.85–$0.90… down slightly… due primarily to the timing of demand creation spending… critical to driving growth on a full‑year basis.” – CFO .
  • “We remain confident in our objective of achieving $10 billion in sales by 2026.” – CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Domestic wholesale rebound: Stronger-than-expected rebound driven by broader embrace of comfort technologies and earlier shipments; expectation for similar domestic wholesale growth in Q2 with timing variability around back‑to‑school .
  • Gross margin outlook: Freight tailwind largely exhausted after Q1; forward GM supported by product/channel mix and DTC outgrowth; distributor growth could modestly dilute GM but benefits operating margin .
  • Marketing cadence: Q2 is peak demand‑creation quarter (several hundred bps higher than average) to cement Slip‑ins brand ownership; benefits accrue through H2 .
  • China trajectory: Continued recovery with double‑digit growth; ample runway as newer tech products roll out; second DC in China targeted to improve efficiency (start‑up costs mainly 2025–2026) .
  • ASP/units: 2024 growth to be more unit‑driven; modest ASP lift from mix as consumers choose higher‑value tech products .

Estimates Context

  • We attempted to retrieve S&P Global consensus for Q1 2024 and forward periods, but S&P Global access limits prevented retrieval at this time. As a result, we cannot quantify beats/misses versus Wall Street consensus for revenue/EPS in this report (S&P Global consensus data unavailable due to request limit) [SPGI error in tool].

Management indicated results exceeded internal expectations and drove a full‑year guidance raise, but that is not a substitute for Street consensus comparisons .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Momentum inflection: Wholesale recovery combined with sustained DTC strength drove record Q1 revenue and margin expansion; broad geography participation de‑risks the growth profile .
  • Guidance raised: FY24 sales and EPS both raised; Q2 EPS guide reflects upfront brand spend to solidify tech leadership, supporting full‑year numbers despite quarterly phasing .
  • Margin quality: Freight tailwinds fade, but product/channel mix and DTC outgrowth should support structurally higher gross margins; watch for distributor mix effects on GM but favorable OM .
  • International engine: EMEA/APAC are key growth drivers; China recovery remains intact; India is a medium‑term opportunity pending regulatory clarity and local capacity build .
  • Capacity/readiness: New DCs (Panama Q2, Colombia 2024, second China DC) enhance logistics and scalability ahead of peak seasons and long‑term growth .
  • Tech differentiation: Hands‑Free Slip‑ins, Arch Fit, Max Cushioning continue to drive mix and pricing power; proactive marketing aims to entrench Skechers’ tech brand equity .
  • Capital allocation: Share repurchases continue; capex trimmed to $325–$375M while funding growth priorities; strong liquidity preserved .

Additional Notes

  • Q1 2024 outperformed the Q1 guidance issued on Feb 1: actual sales $2.252B vs $2.175–$2.225B; EPS $1.33 vs $1.05–$1.10, reflecting stronger demand and wholesale rebound .
  • Store base expanded to 5,203 (+35 QoQ), with 147 openings and 112 closures across company-owned and partner doors in Q1 .

Citations

  • Q1 2024 8‑K press release and exhibits .
  • Q1 2024 earnings call transcript (prepared remarks and Q&A) .
  • Q4 2023 8‑K press release and Q4 2023 earnings call transcript for prior‑quarter context and initial FY24/Q1 guidance .
  • Q3 2023 8‑K press release for two‑quarters‑back trend context .